日期: 2021-05-18

Traders appear disinterested in buying Bitcoin at the current levels, suggesting that further downside could be in store for BTC and altcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to an intraday low near $42,000 today, dropping 35% from its all-time high at $64,849.27. Over the weekend the selling intensified as news that Tesla may have sold its Bitcoin holdings made waves, and even after this was proven to be untrue, Bitcoin’s market dominance had still been pulled down to a three-year low below 40%. 

While this decline in Bitcoin may have scared new investors, stock-to-flow creator PlanB said the performance of the current bull phase is still better than the 2017 bull run. PlanB also warned investors to expect several 30% dips during Bitcoin’s climb to a new all-time high.

Although the long-term story remains intact, the sharp bearish moves in Bitcoin on every minor negative news tidbit suggest nervousness among investors. The lack of a sharp recovery even after Elon Musk’s clarification that “Tesla has not sold any Bitcoin” suggests investors are not buying aggressively on positive news.

Will Bitcoin’s weakness stall the altcoin season or is Bitcoin getting ready for a sharp relief rally? Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin broke below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on May 16 but the bears could not achieve a close below it. By the end of the day, the price rebounded and closed above the neckline.

However, the selling resumed today and the bears have pulled the price below the neckline. If the BTC/USDT pair closes below the neckline, the head and shoulders pattern will complete.

If the bulls do not push the price back above the neckline quickly, the selling is likely to intensify further. The pair could then start its decline toward the pattern target at $31,653.73.

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($52,265) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the oversold territory indicate the bears have the upper hand.

Any pullback is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA. This negative view will invalidate if the bulls push the price above the stiff overhead resistance at $60,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) is correcting the sharp uptrend of the past few days. The price dipped below the 20-day EMA ($3,431) today but the bulls are trying to arrest the decline near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,195.98.

If the price rebounds off the current level and rises above $3,600, the bulls will try to push the price to $4,200. However, the 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has dropped near the midpoint, suggesting the bullish momentum may be weakening.

If the buyers fail to defend the $3,195.98 support, the decline could extend to the next support at the 50-day simple moving average ($2,709). Such a deep fall is likely to delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.

BNB/USDT

Binance Coin (BNB) broke below the 50-day SMA ($520) for the first time since Dec. 13. The 20-day EMA ($585) has started to turn down and the RSI has slipped below 42, suggesting the bears are trying to gain the upper hand.

If the current recovery turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are closing their positions on rallies. That will increase the possibility of a break below $480. If that happens, the BNB/USDT pair may drop to $428 and then to $348.70.

The first sign of strength will be a breakout and close above $615. Such a move will suggest that the correction is over and the pair may be ready to resume the uptrend. A breakout and close above $691.77 could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $796.64.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) is in a strong uptrend. It reached a new all-time high at $2.34 on May 16 where profit-booking set in. If the price breaks below $1.95, the altcoin may drop to the 20-day EMA ($1.71).

A strong rebound off the 20-day EMA will suggest the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips. On the contrary, a break below the 20-day EMA will indicate that supply exceeds demand and that may pull the price down to the 50-day SMA ($1.39).

Instead, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above $2.34, the ADA/USDT pair may resume its uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is $2.82 and then $3. The rising moving averages and the RSI above 63 indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside.

DOGE/USDT

The bulls are currently attempting to defend the 20-day EMA ($0.46). If they succeed, Dogecoin (DOGE) could move up to $0.59 where the bulls are likely to encounter stiff resistance from the bears.

If the price turns down from $0.59, the possibility of a break below the 20-day EMA increases. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair could drop to the critical support at $0.35. A strong rebound off this support could keep the pair range-bound between $0.35 and $0.59 for a few days.

Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls drive the price above $0.59, the pair may retest the all-time high at $0.73. A breakout of this resistance could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $0.83 and then $1.

XRP/USDT

The bulls purchased the dip to the support line of the symmetrical triangle today, indicating buying at lower levels. The buyers will now try to propel XRP above the resistance line of the triangle.

If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 52-week high at $1.96.This level may act as stiff resistance but if the bulls can overcome it, the pair may rally to $2.68.

The flat 20-day EMA ($1.43) and the RSI above 53 do not signal a clear advantage to the bulls. If the price turns down from the resistance line of the triangle, the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for a few more days.

The trend will turn in favor of the bears if the price breaks below the triangle. That could result in a decline to $0.88.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke out of the $44 overhead resistance on May 14 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. The bears pulled the price back below the breakout level at $44 on May 15.

The 20-day EMA ($39.34) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

A break below $32.50 could open the gates for a decline to the critical support at $26.50. A bounce off this support will suggest accumulation at lower levels.

On the other hand, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above $44, it will suggest that sentiment remains positive and the bulls continue to buy at lower levels. That will increase the possibility of a retest of the all-time high at $49.78.

BCH/USDT

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke and closed below the 20-day EMA ($1,178) on May 15. The bulls attempted to push the price back above the 20-day EMA on May 16 but failed to sustain the higher levels. This led to further selling today and the price dipped to the psychological level at $1,000.

The bulls are currently attempting to defend the support at $1,000. However, any relief rally from the current level is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($1,170) and then at $1,362.74.

If the price turns down from this level, the BCH/USDT pair may remain range-bound for a few days.

This neutral view will invalidate if the pair continues lower and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($922). Such a move could open the doors for a further decline to $700. The trend may favor the bulls on a break and close above $1,362.74.

LTC/USDT

The failure of the bulls to build upon the breakout of the ascending broadening wedge formation could have attracted aggressive profit-booking from short-term traders. This pulled Litecoin (LTC) to the 20-day EMA ($308) on May 12.

Although the bulls attempted a recovery on May 13 and 14, the rebound fizzled out at $339.10. The selling resumed on May 15 and sent the LTC/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA.

Today, the bulls are attempting to defend the 50-day SMA ($270). However, the 20-day EMA has started to slope down and the RSI is below 45, suggesting the bears are trying to make a comeback.

If the pair breaks below the 50-day SMA, the selling could intensify and the pair may drop to the support line of the wedge. This negative view will be negated if the bulls push the price above $340.

UNI/USDT

Uniswap (UNI) broke below the support line of the ascending channel today but the bears could not capitalize on this weakness. The bulls are currently attempting to push the price back into the channel.

However, the 20-day EMA ($37.72) has started to turn down and the RSI has dipped into the negative territory, suggesting the bears have a slight advantage. If the price closes below the channel, it will indicate a possible change in trend.

The UNI/USDT pair could then drop to the $27.50 to $25 support zone and then to $20. This negative view will invalidate if the buyers propel the price above $40.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

“We want our kids to be able to think independently about money,” said Eddie Yoon.

A Bloomberg contributor will be paying his son Bitcoin in exchange for chores above and beyond his usual scope, but he is seemingly unable to decide on the best means of payment.

In an opinion piece today, Eddie Yoon said he would pay his seventh grader 0.00055 Bitcoin (BTC) — roughly $23.50 at the time of publication — for the boy helping him with competitive pricing benchmarking for a rental property. Yoon said he gave his son Luke a choice of “cash, candy, or Bitcoin” for the work, closing the deal with a handshake.

According to the Bloomberg contributor, the move was based on giving his children a role in their own financial decisions rather than jumping in on any craze. He said he helped Luke purchase Tesla stock in 2016 and his daughters buy into Apple and Alphabet.

“We’ve told our kids that we will fund any investment that we collectively agree on between now and the age of 25,” said Yoon. “We don’t plan to leave them an inheritance, so we want them to be equipped for a future in which their own investments give them financial security.”

Yoon added that he has “yet to figure out which cryptocurrency platform allows minors to open accounts.” There are few, if any, laws that prohibit children under the age of 18 from HOLDing or trading cryptocurrency, but many exchanges still require verification to ensure their users are of legal age. Alternatively, adults can gift minors crypto with paper wallets or through Bitcoin ATMs.

“We don’t want our kids to necessarily beat the market. We want our kids to be able to think independently about money. We want them to manage their money, not let it manage them. We want them to find the right balance between ignorance and obsession with money.”

Though many children — and adults — may not always be able to understand the complexities of the market, some crypto enthusiasts have already taken the first steps toward them becoming more financially educated. Three-year-old Lily Knight, born during the 2017 bull run, meets both criteria by teaching others about crypto and blockchain on her YouTube channel.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said in a tweet Saturday that he and his 11-year-old son Jake collectively own 3,250 Dogecoin (DOGE) — roughly $1,556 at the time of publication. Cuban previously claimed he used the token for entertainment and financial education.

However, one of the youngest prominent crypto holders is Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s son X Æ A-Xii — pronounced “ex ash eh twelve” — who recently celebrated his first birthday. Musk said he purchased some DOGE for the baby at nine months old, referring to him as a “toddler HODLer.”

Data from DappRadar shows rapid uptake of Polygon-based decentralized applications. The network now has 93 functioning dapps, up considerably over the past four weeks.

Polygon, a leading platform for Ethereum (ETH) scaling and infrastructure development, has attracted 75,000 new users over the past seven days, highlighting growing demand for layer-2 decentralized applications. 

The data, courtesy of DappRadar, shows that the top 20 Polygon dapps were responsible for the increase. In this case, new users refer to active wallets interacting with Polygon dapps. The influx of new users brought in nearly $1 billion in volume.

In the last four weeks, the number of Polygon dapps tracked by DappRadar has grown to 93 from 61. Forty-six of these dapps are in the decentralized finance, or DeFi, space. As Cointelegraph recently reported, DeFi growth has helped push the cryptocurrency market’s share of the global money supply above 2%.

Ian Kane, DappRadar’s senior content and media relations specialist, described the way developers are using Polygon:

“Interestingly, as most DeFi dapps are built on open-source design Polygon dapp developers are simply copying popular dapps on Polygon and other chains like BSC and Ethereum. Rebranding them, adding a few new features, and pushing them out onto Polygon with one key difference.”

More users are flocking to Polygon because it offers “cheaper and faster transitions” than its Ethereum-based competitors, according to Kane.

Polygon, formerly known as Matic, has made several noteworthy headlines over the past month. A decentralized finance protocol by the name of mStable launched on the Polygon chain in late April, offering yet another DeFi use case. Separately, decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch Network recently announced that it has expanded to Polygon.

Polygon’s native token, MATIC, was one of only a small handful of cryptocurrencies to report gains on Monday. The value of MATIC was up 5.7% on the day to $1.66, having gained over 71% in the past seven days, according to Coingecko.

Traders are afraid another Black Thursday crash is on the cards, but derivatives data proves the current correction has no resemblance to the March 2020 pullback.

Bitcoin’s 51.4% crash in March 2020 was the most horrific 24-hour black swan event in the digital asset’s history. The recent price activity of the past week has probably resurrected similar emotions for investors who experienced the Black Thursday crash. 

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped 29% to reach a three-month low at $42,150. $5.5 billion in long contracts were liquidated, which is undoubtedly a record-high in absolute terms. Still, the impact of the March 2020 crash on derivatives was orders of magnitude higher.

To understand why the current correction is less severe than the one in March 2020, we will start by analyzing the perpetual futures premium. These contracts, also known as inverse swaps, face an adjustment every eight hours, so any price gap with traditional spot markets can be easily arbitrated.

Sometimes, price discrepancies arise during moments of panic due to concerns about the derivatives exchange’s liquidity or market makers being unable to participate during times of extreme volatility.

On March 12, 2020, the Bitcoin perpetual futures initiated a much larger descent than the price on spot exchanges. This move is partially explained by the cascading liquidations that took place, creating a backlog of large sell orders unable to find liquidity at reasonable prices.

The aftermath of the bloodbath resulted in futures perpetual contracts trading at a 12% discount versus regular spot exchanges. BitMEX, the largest derivatives market at the time, went offline for 25 minutes, causing havoc as investors became suspicious about its liquidity conditions.

By comparing this event with the most recent week, one will find that sustainable price discrepancies are very unusual. Even a temporary 12% gap doesn’t occur, even during the most volatile hours.

Take notice of how the perpetual contracts reached a peak 4% discount versus regular spot exchanges on May 13, although it lasted less than five minutes. Market makers and arbitrage desks could have been caught off guard but quickly managed to recoup liquidity by buying the perpetual contracts at a discount.

To understand the impact of those crashes on professional traders, the 25% delta skew is the best metric, as it compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options’ pricing. When market makers and whales fear that Bitcoin’s price could crash, they demand a higher premium for the neutral-to-bearish put options. This movement causes the 25% delta skew to shift positively.

The above chart displays the mind-blowing 59% peak one-month Bitcoin options delta skew in March 2020. This data shows absolute fear and an incapacity to price the put (sell) options, causing the distortion. Even if one excludes the intraday peak, the 25% delta skew presented sustained periods above 20, indicating extreme “fear.”

Over the past week, the skew indicator peaked at 14%, which isn’t very far from the “neutral” -10% to +10% range. It is indeed a striking difference from the previous months’ negative skew, indicating optimism, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Therefore, although the recent 29% price drop in seven days could have been devastating for traders using leverage, the overall impact on derivatives has been modest.

This data shows that the market has been incredibly resilient as of late, but this strength might be tested if Bitcoin’s price continues to drop.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Iranian cyber police allegedly seized control of Bridge Oracle CEO Sina Estavi’s Twitter account.

Iranian Cyber Police have reportedly arrested Bridge Oracle CEO Sina Estavi, according to a tweet pinned to Estavi’s Twitter account.

A rough translation of the tweet reads:

“The owner of this account was arrested on charges of disrupting the economic system by order of Special Court for Economic Crimes. Official judicial authorities will provide additional information.”

The same tweet is also pinned to the official account of Bridge Oracle, a Tron Network-based public oracle system. At the time of writing, the price of Bridge Oracle’s native token, BRG, has taken a sharp dive, crashing by more than 65%, according to data from TradingView.

Bridge Oracle is said to be a Malaysia-based blockchain company, but Estavi’s other venture, cryptocurrency exchange Cryptoland, was operating in Iran. Cryptoland’s Twitter account shares the same pinned tweet. No further information was shared publicly by the authorities.

Estavi is known for his heated bidding battle with tech entrepreneur and Tron CEO Justin Sun to buy Jack Dorsey’s first-ever tweet as an NFT. Twitter’s first tweet is dated March 2006 and reads, “Just setting up my twttr.”

In the end, Estavi successfully purchased the NFT for more than $2.9 million, or 1,630 Ether (ETH). Dorsey converted the proceeds to Bitcoin (BTC) and donated them to a charity organization in Africa.

Earlier this year, Estavi was sued by former Bitcoin.com CEO Mate Tokay for allegedly failing to pay him for his services. In his claim, Tokay also alleged that there’s an inconsistency between the purported and actual circulating supply of BRG.

Cointelegraph reached out to Bridge Oracle for comment. This article will be updated should they reply.