bookmark_borderStocks slide as dollar hits 4-month highs: Why Bitcoin price is slumping below $50K

Bitcoin is slumping as the DXY breaks out and the U.S. stock market tanks.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is extending its slump below $49,000 on March 5 as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) reached the highest levels since November 2020.  

DXY (blue) vs. BTC/USD (orange). Source: Tradingview

Meanwhile, the prospect of rising rates and a potential stock market top is putting downward pressure on equities and Bitcoin, causing the entire cryptocurrency market to pull back.

Rising treasury yields — the biggest threat to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin and risk-on assets, in general, have been heavily affected by rising 10-year treasury yield rates in the U.S. As a result, the global macro landscape has worsened.

Kyle Davies, the CEO at Three Arrows Capital, said:

“I don’t care about your rate view but if rates stay unch, we’re all gonna be retired if rates go higher, we’re all gonna be back in school.”

The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P500 index, has already erased all of its gains from 2021, according to Bloomberg.

If the risk-on market continues to correct or consolidate, it would likely have a negative effect on the price of Bitcoin in the near term.

Scott Melker, a cryptocurrency trader, said Bitcoin likely falls into a range. There is significant selling pressure and lots of buyer demand, placing it in a tight range. He said:

“Likely we fall into a range here. Lots of selling at the top (up wicks), lots of buying at the bottom (down wicks). Nice to see a clear shift from supply to demand here.”

Bitcoin price trend. Source: Scott Melker,

In the foreseeable future, if the bond yield curve does not ease, the threat against the short-term trend of the Bitcoin price would likely remain.

Continued steepening … as of yesterday, 2s10s yield curve reached highest since 2015

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) March 5, 2021

Is BTC price bearish?

High Stakes Capital, one of the top traders on FTX, said that he remains full spot long, however. Although Bitcoin’s outlook remains seemingly bearish, he said that the accumulation on Coinbase Pro is ongoing.

In the past week, outflows from Coinbase Pro have continued to increase. This trend indicates that the institutional accumulation of Bitcoin is continuing in the U.S. The trader said:

“I’ve seen on a forum that people think Im bearish w my previous tweets while I was just thinking about plausible ahead scenarios There is a macro risk and if stocks correct, BTC could follow, that said coinbase pro still accumulate at this level Im full spot and lev long.”

Despite the stagnant market structure, various fundamental metrics and on-chain indicators suggest that BTC/USD is on a bullish trajectory as Bitcoin is up roughly 100% year-to-date unlike stocks, which have erased their 2021 gains.

BTC/USD (blue) vs. S&P500 (orange) YTD performance. Source: Tradingview

If institutions accumulate Bitcoin, especially in the U.S., it decreases the probability of BTC plunging below key support levels, such as $30,000 and $40,000.

Unlike previous bull cycles, massive 30% to 40% drops may occur less during this ongoing bull cycle. In the near term, the $52,000 resistance level remains key to more upside. If BTC breaks past it, it would signal a resumption in the bullish market structure, making another broad rally likely.

bookmark_borderSquare’s $297M stake in Tidal could unlock DLT features, analyst says

Square’s majority stake in Jay-Z’s streaming service Tidal will potentially help artists grow their fan bases using blockchain technology, a Gartner analyst said.

Square’s majority stake in Jay-Z’s streaming service Tidal could potentially result in some blockchain-related functionalities on the platform, according to one analyst.

Avivah Litan, a technology analyst at consulting company Gartner, suggested that Square’s $297 million investment could push Tidal to start taking advantage of new technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrencies, Reuters reports Friday.

With Square’s help, Tidal would specifically benefit from the technology of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, which allows artists to certify ownership for photos, videos and other digital content, the expert noted. NFT technology could easily track the provenance of autographs and memorabilia, potentially making them even more valuable for fans, Litan said.

Square officially announced that the company entered into an agreement to acquire a majority ownership stake in Tidal on Thursday, claiming that Tidal will continue operating independently within Square, alongside its Seller and Cash App ecosystems. CEO Jack Dorsey subsequently hinted that Square will focus on the critical needs of artists and growing their fan bases in a similar way that the firm has been doing for Cash App clients, stating:

“Square created ecosystems of tools for sellers & individuals, and we’ll do the same for artists. We’ll work on entirely new listening experiences to bring fans closer together, simple integrations for merch sales, modern collaboration tools, and new complementary revenue streams.”

Square did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.

Available in 56 countries, Tidal is an entertainment platform owned by some of the world’s most famous celebrities like Kanye West, Beyoncé, Madonna, Rihanna and Nicki Minaj. The platform has sought to distinguish itself from other popular streaming platforms like Spotify by committing to providing sound quality to listeners and a greater share of revenue to artists. Jay-Z bought Tidal for about $56 million in 2015 from Norwegian entrepreneurs.

bookmark_borderBitcoin’s next top could be between $75K and $306K, Kraken research suggests

A reading of the historical data paints a promising picture for Bitcoin’s potential growth in 2021.

Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price action dating back to 2011 suggests the coin price could next top out somewhere between $75,000 and $306,000, research from Kraken shows.

Based on one reading of a logarithmic growth curve that connects historical tops and bottoms, a coin price of $75,000 would signal Bitcoin’s entry into overbought territory, marking the end of its current bull run.

“Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin could likely continue appreciating gradually in price before ultimately going parabolic and hitting resistance, which will signal the end of its fourth bull market cycle,” the report states.

Analysis of historical price retracements throws up some even bolder predictions. All things being equal, if BTC were to continue along its current growth curve and then enter a retracement similar to prior market crashes, the next bottom would be somewhere around $30,000.

Based on this proposed bottom one can attempt to make predictions about the next market peak, depending on the extent of the retracement.

Were Bitcoin to retrace 70% during the current cycle, the coin price would have to reach a peak of $102,000 in order to hit the aforementioned bottom of $30,000.

Similarly, a 90% crash would place the next top at $306,000, while an 86% drop — the average retracement of previous market cycles — would imply an upcoming market peak of $221,000. Either way, states the report, history would suggest Bitcoin remains “far and away” from a market top.

Diving into the historical data once more, the first quarter of 2021 proved to be the third-best performing quarter in Bitcoin’s 12-year existence, based on return percentage and annualized volatility.

Kraken’s research shows that March has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin, with the coin price appreciating just twice during this period since it began trading. In the past, March has, on average, underperformed February’s growth by 11%.

The report also notes that Bitcoin is now trending in a manner similar to the first quarter of 2013 — the most fruitful Q1 in the coin’s history. A correlation of 0.82 between the two is an encouraging sign and could subvert the historic trend which sees Bitcoin underperform in March.

Bitcoin recorded five consecutive months of positive returns leading up to the time of publication. That’s a sight witnessed just once before — in 2017 during the lead up to that year’s bull run and subsequent market peak.

bookmark_borderCrypto Pepes: What does the frog meme?

When BarnBridge founder Tyler Ward decided to change his profile pic a few weeks ago, he inadvertently created a Pepe the Frog NFT meme craze embraced by celebrities and the DeFi community that was on track to reap more than $60 million in sales on the OpenSea auction platform.

Then the wheels fell off rather spectacularly. Magazine chats with Ward on Monday, Feb. 22, after the first 20 of 1,069 Non-Fungible Pepes were sold at an average price of $62,671 each, and he cant quite believe it.

We sold like $1.3M worth of Pepes, like 20 of them,” he says. “One of them went for $200,000!

All these celebrities have gotten involved like Diplo, just signed up to be a part of the movement. Everyone in crypto is a part of it.

All the Defi protocol founders, even Vitaliks dad, got behind it. Dillon Francis, he’s a pretty famous musician in the US, hes actually been going pretty hard on all of this stuff. I wasn’t expecting it. I mean, its truly blown up over the weekend.


30 min left on a bunch of these @NonFungiblePepe GET IN THERE

— dillonfrancis (@DillonFrancis) February 20, 2021


Origins lost in the mists of time

Way back on Feb. 12, Ward asked his in-house designer to knock up an image of sad-faced frog Pepe in the low-res style of CryptoPunks for use as his Twitter profile pic. Handed a few different examples, he sent them off to friends including Synthetix founder Kain Warwick and illustrator and art collector Tim Pang.

Everybodys just like You gotta do this, this is really fun, he says. Of course, while Pepe is a beloved crypto meme, its also widely associated by normies with racism and sexism and the alt-right edgelords from the badlands of 4chan. This pisses Ward off.


I mean were all pretty progressive. The Ethereum community is not alt right, but we very much have grown a fondness for this frog, he says, adding: The frogs background was never alt right. We were using it in crypto way before the alt right was.

In its OpenSea listing, the project said it was explicitly about trying to help rehabilitate the melancholy frogs Nazi image:

We are here to reclaim the humor of the meme through our shared love for NFTs and having some fun. If our Pepes are used for racism, bigotry, or anything terrible we will shame you and Kek will have vengeance on your soul.

Ward says he was inspired by Tyler Winklevoss idea that Bitcoin is actually a social network, inspiring millions to spread the gospel of Bitcoin by enabling them to share in its value.

I thought: what is the best way you can get everybody to band around the idea that Pepe is not racist? If we mint a bunch of them and give them some degree of value, then people will want them for more than just a profile picture. It creates a digital scarcity and I think that as a result of that theyll care about what they own and theyll care about trying to clean up the image of what it represents. Lets make the movement about taking Pepe back.

Despite having zero marketing budget and no time to even set up a website, the NFT Pepes meme took off across social media, with 2,000 members pouring into the hastily thrown-together Discord channel and almost 5,000 following the new Twitter account.

I started this as a joke. I was trying to change my Twitter profile picture. But that anti racism message really resonated because Im not the only person in crypto apparently, who thought Pepe was cool, and thought it was messed up that we couldnt use them because of racist people.



There was just one slight problem: Ward was not aware that the meme frog even had a creator, or that artist Matt Furies life has been all but ruined by alt-right edgelords appropriating his frog, as outlined in the excellent new documentary Feels Good Man.

This became clear when Galaxy Digitals Mike Novogratz tweeted about the insane $210,000 (110 ETH) price that one of the NFPs (PepeIsLyfe #38) went for, and the documentary makers pointed out that the knock-off Pepe had brought in almost as much as the films entire budget.

In case there was any doubt…not an official sanctioned Pepe.

Its a rather absurd moment in time that a knock off jpg can sell for the cost of making an entire documentary about the actual meme.

— Feels Good Man – the doco about that frog meme (@feelsgoodmandoc) February 22, 2021


The Non-Fungible Pepe Twitter account quickly posted it was halting all sales while the team frantically tried to get in touch with Furie to seek his blessing. That blessing was not forthcoming.

I asked him if he wanted to be involved and he said no I dont and I also dont want you using Pepe, Ward explains via WhatsApp earlier this week. So instead of seeing how I could maximize profit and be a jerk, I refunded sales to people who felt slighted and I did what Matt asked me to do. Within a few days, theyd refunded 80% of the $1.8 million worth of WETH taken in the auctions.

Ward believes that legally speaking, the project was on solid ground. I dont think Matts legal position is very sound but it came down to me respecting him as an artist and the hell Pepe has put him through and I dont want to be a part of either ripping someone off even if its 2% their work what made this successful or 200%.

At the end of the day, the more I learned since starting this, that frog has made his life a living hell and had I known that starting this I wouldnt have done it, he admits. The project has since been transformed into Non-Fungible Universe, with 69 original characters and its own currency called KEK.



Pepes past

Pepe the Frog began life innocently enough in Furies 2005 comic book series Boys Club as a laid back frog with the catchphrase feels good man. Sure, there was psychedelia and drugs and stuff, but Pepe was a good guy, and Furie would post the comics to his MySpace page.

Memes featuring Pepe then became widespread on MySpace, Tumblr and 4chan. Over the next nine years, the frogs popularity grew to the point where influencers were doing Pepe makeup videos and mainstream pop stars like Katy Perry and Nicky Minaj were tweeting out the meme.


The best of blockchain, every Sunday

Subscribe for thoughtful explorations and leisurely reads from Magazine.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy

According to The Daily Beast, in 2015, the anon army from one of 4chans more out there forums, /R9k/, decided to reclaim Pepe from the normies by pushing them away with a barrage of edgy Pepe memes featuring ironic racist, homophobic and antisemitic stuff. A member of the board tweeting as JaredTSwift told the news outlet: We basically mixed Pepe in with Nazi propaganda, etc. We built that association.

The joke became less and less ironic as Donald Trump campaigned for the presidency and Pepe became the house mascot of MAGA and white nationalists. Remember that whole punch a nazi meme? That began when alt-right figurehead Richard Spencer was punched in the face on camera while trying to explain the meaning of his Pepe badge. That same year, the Anti-Defamation League listed Pepe as a hate symbol, even though it explicitly pointed out:

The majority of uses of Pepe the Frog have been, and continue to be, non-bigoted.

The ADL launched a #savepepe campaign with creator Matt Furie, who said: As the creator of Pepe, I condemn the illegal and repulsive appropriations of the character by racist and fringe groups. The true nature of Pepe, as featured in my comic book, Boys Club, celebrates peace, togetherness and fun. I aim to reclaim the rascally frog from the forces of hate.



Rare Pepes were the original NFTs

4chan also had a hand in how Rare Pepes, essentially the original NFTs, came about. They trace their origins to a 2015 inside joke about an autistic kid who would exchange Good Boy Points for chicken tendies. Then people started exchanging Rare Pepes for tendies, which led to the idea that Rare Pepes had value.

This inspired some people to create unique tokens on the Counterparty platform to represent ownership of Rare Pepe trading cards, which were traded for PepeCash. Interestingly, rules were brought in to ensure content was original and didnt relate to alt-right, white supremacist or pro-Donald Trump content.

Pepe trading enthusiast Django Bates told the Daily Dot at the time: Most of the community dont think Pepe is an alt-right thing. Some (like me) think that we should Make Pepe Great Again and free him of that connotation. He adds further: Also, you have to be aware that Pepe as a symbol of hate and racism by alt-rights is a merely North American thing. The rest of the world does not see Pepe in that context.



Rare Pepe Wallet was set up as a platform to trade the tokens, with the phenomenon culminating in a live auction in 2018 that saw a Homer Pepe sell for around $38,500 in Pepe Cash. In an interesting postscript, earlier this week on March 1, owner Peter Lamborghini resold it for 205 ETH, or almost $300,000.


In art news: The reputed “rarest pepe” sold for 205 ETH (approximately $295k USD) according to its owner.

— Travis View (@travis_view) March 1, 2021


Chainlink frog army

The association of Chainlink, the ninth-largest cryptocurrency project, with Pepe is thanks to 4chans slightly less awful /Biz/ forum, which features a deep vein of dank meme-powered crypto shilling. It was here that a Q-style prophet/insider named Assblaster dropped hints and clues about LINK in the early days, claiming both that he was under an NDA and also dropping large amounts of free alpha about the project into the forum.

When Chainlink started doing well it just became this cultish prophecy of 4chan, and 4chan really likes Pepe the frog so it was kind of this merger, says Ward. A lot of people that posted about Chainlink would post with Pepe the Frog and they kind of became intertwined.

LINK Marine Albert Nazarov, who spends around four hours per day reading and tweeting about Chainlink, discovered the currency via 4chan.

Things like racism and sexism etc are prevalent, he concedes. But ironically, 4chan is basically a crucible of raw thoughts, the best and balanced make it to the top. Its almost anything goes there, and it trains the brain to decipher good info from bad stuff.



Nazarov says that for a while there, Pepe was bad for our optics, so the community tried to distance itself by dressing up as LINK gentlemen in suits etc. However, Pepe just cuts through better.

The main power of Pepe is relatability, he says, pointing out that the character is humanoid enough to express emotion but cartoonish and abstract enough to make great memes. And great memes helped supercharge Chainlink.

It no longer bears alt right connotations in my opinion, he concludes, while pointing out further:

Oracles and decentralised middleware is not sexy and its quite laborious to read about. Whilst a Pepe meme spreads the same message to a wider audience. Its basically the distillation of knowledge into a relatable form. A five-year-old could understand LINK through a meme for example.



Synthetix founder Kain Warwick currently sporting a Non-Fungible Pepe profile pic says he doesnt detect any trace of alt-right thought among the frog army.

Theyre all Chainlink memes, theyre very Chainlink focused, he says. And I dont think that theres a particular sort of alt right bent to the Chainlink community. I just think that theyve taken that meme as a funny meme.

But he adds there had been a long debate in the Synthetix Discord about the use of Pepe on social media about whether the crypto community has been able to reclaim the frog. And theyd come to the conclusion it has.

I think there is a bit of co-option of those images and reusing them for crypto memes and personally Im a fan of that. The Pepe meme was co-opted by the alt right so for it to be re co-opted by some other group and used in different contexts I think is a powerful way of undermining those sorts of things.

bookmark_border‘Better as friends’: DeFi protocols Yearn and Cover announce cessation of merger

The relationship is “c-over” between Yearn Finance and Cover, an emotional split related to a new protocol from Cover developers.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols Yearn Finance and Cover have announced today the end of a protocol merger process initiated in November last year. 

The two protocols were initially linked during a spree of a half-dozen Yearn acquisitions, mergers, or collaborations, the exact term depending on the project. The split comes as a surprise to many, given that Cover, a protocol that provides coverage or insurance for DeFi deposits, was a natural fit for yield vault provider Yearn. The teams had also collaborated in crisis situations in the past, such as when Cover experienced an “infinite mint” hack in late December 2020.

We have decided to end the previously announced merger process of Yearn and Cover. Both protocols will continue to operate independently. yVault depositors who have previously purchased Cover protection are unaffected by this.

— (@iearnfinance) March 5, 2021

Following the hack of Yearn’s DAI vault earlier this month the team also announced that coverage from Cover would become standard across all vaults. According to Cover core contributor “DeFi Ted”, Yearn will now be moving forward independently with their own insurance offering. 

Both teams confirmed that users can continue to purchase coverage for Yearn deposits, and that current coverage will be unaffected.

Comments from both teams indicate that the cessation was an emotional, potentially snap decision — one rooted in potential conflicts of interest related to Cover’s new protocol, Ruler.

Emotional responses

In a since-deleted Tweet, Yearn founder Andre Cronje weighed in in the split, portraying it as a breach of trust:

“Personally, this was very sad to see. I had very high regard, trust, and faith in the Cover team. Lesson learned. Wont trust them again.” 

He’s since followed up with another, similarly cryptic Tweet: 

Deleted my previous tweet. It was an emotional response. Twitter isn’t the place for that. I often forget ethics and money don’t mix.

— Andre Cronje (@AndreCronjeTech) March 5, 2021

DeFi Ted told Cointelegraph that the two teams had recently met to discuss providing coverage for Yearn’s vaults, and the Yearn representatives reached out shortly after to reveal they would be building their own insurance/coverage offering. 

Ted added he was personally “a bit blind sided” by the decision, which he says was given with four hours notice prior to the Yearn announcement on Twitter. On official social channels Cover team members characterized the split as a “difference of opinion,” and likened it to a romantic relationship in which both parties discover that they’re “better as friends.”

“Honestly feel a little lost right now sir,” said Ted.

A core Yearn operations contributor declined to comment.

Can’t fork and be friends

Some community members have speculated that Yearn’s decision is related to the launch of Ruler Protocol, a lending solution from core Cover contributors that kicked off a liquidity mining program this week. The Yearn ecosystem already includes one lending platform, CREAM Finance, and core contributor “banteg” has hinted on Twitter that the team isn’t appreciative of competitive overlap from collaborating teams:

Friends don’t fork friends

— banteg (@bantg) January 21, 2021

Ted confirmed to Cointelegraph that the split is related to Ruler, but said that there’s “no conflict” between the various protocols, and instead that there was concern from Yearn about the Cover team “running two projects.” 

“In fact, we have a great relationship with Leo and CREAM, don’t be surprised to see us do something with them,” he said.

The price for Cover’s native governance token, $COVER, has plummeted on the news, down 35% to $605 at the time of publication.

Nonetheless, Ted and other team members say they remain resolute in building, and that the split is just another chapter in what has been a tumultuous history featuring multiple forks and re-launches. 

“The COVER journey has definitely been unique.”

下載iBTC 手機APP