bookmark_borderBitcoin Cash is on the brink of falling below 1% of Bitcoin’s price

BCH price has decreased by over 96% in value against BTC over the past three years.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) holders have no reason to celebrate, despite the 46% year-to-date gains in U.S. dollar terms. One year ago, the altcoin was the third-largest by market capitalization. It now risks dropping out of the top 10, having been surpassed by other cryptocurrencies including Litecoin (LTC) and Chainlink’s LINK.

BCH/BTC. Source: TradingView

After three years of continuous devaluation, BCH finally traded below 0.01 Bitcoin (BTC) on Feb. 22. Besides being psychological support, it marks a 96.5% devaluation from its highest close of 0.285 BTC on Aug. 2, 2017.

Even though both cryptocurrencies’ combined hash rate was somewhat comparable at the time, it has since become a one-sided battle, with BTC’s hash rate dominance now over 98% versus BCH and Bitcoin SV (BSV) combined.

Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin hash rate. Source: Coin Metrics

As depicted above, the BCH hash rate currently stands at 1% of BTC’s 150 exahashes per second. However, BCH proponents argue that Bitcoin Cash’s 10-block checkpoint system defends the blockchain against hostile reorgs, so less hash rate is needed.

Nevertheless, while the risk of a “deep reorg” is reduced, checkpoints come with tradeoffs, particularly the increased risk of a consensus chain split, according to BitMex. 

The addition of checkpoints has also led to criticism from Bitcoin proponents, who argue that this solution compromises the decentralization of the Bitcoin Cash network. 

Just woke up:
So apparently Jihan took a lot of hashpower from Bitcoin to mine on $BCH. He got really scared and is burning a lot of money. https://t.co/RbObgu5fiS
They added a checkpoint to prevent attacks. It means that 1 person is saying what is the valid chain = centralized.

— WhalePanda (@WhalePanda) November 16, 2018

Litecoin’s active addresses outshine Bitcoin Cash

Daily active addresses are a vital on-chain metric, albeit they are often inflated when the lower transaction costs are considered alongside network security tradeoffs. Nevertheless, comparing BCH with Litecoin and Dash seems reasonable, as the three networks have average fees below $0.05.

BCH, LTC and Dash daily active addresses. Source: Coin Metrics

As the data indicates, Litecoin currently has double the number of Bitcoin Cash daily active addresses. Therefore, the activity on the Bitcoin Cash network is more similar to that of Dash, an altcoin with a $2.2 billion market capitalization

 VORTECS™ Score (yellow) vs. BCH price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Additionally, the VORTECS™ metric from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began dropping on Feb. 18, just days before the price peaked.

The VORTECS™ score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from multiple data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

The score fell to sub-50 levels, and the drop in BCH price came four days later, losing the important $670 support level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

bookmark_border链上激励协议 DaFi 完成 90 万美元融资,共十家机构参投

链闻消息,链上激励协议 DaFi 完成 90 万美元私募融资,参投方为 LD Capital、Rarestone Capital、Spark Capital、AU21 Capital、Amplifi、Twin Apex、Polymer Capital、SL2 Capital、Morningstar Ventures 和 MoonRock Capital。

DaFi 表示将在接下来的几周内进行公开销售,并公布代币经济模型细节。DaFi 可以根据用户的采用度,对用户进行奖励,每个去中心化网络都可以创建与其协议采用度相关的合成资产 dTokens 以奖励用户。

原文链接:链上激励协议 DaFi 完成 90 万美元融资,共十家机构参投

bookmark_borderSoaring Treasury yields are worrying economists — But what does this mean for Bitcoin?

The price of gold has also been stagnating, but this isn’t necessarily bad for “digital gold” Bitcoin.

This week’s correction in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) showed that a market doesn’t go up in a straight line. Meanwhile, another topic has been gaining attention, namely the big rise in the 10-year yields of U.S. government bonds. 

In recent weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield of U.S. government bonds has surged by 35% to a new high of 1.44%, the highest point since the cross-asset crash in March 2020.

Treasury yield bounces from a 60-year low

U.S. 10-Year Yield 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

The 10-year Treasury yield has been accelerating massively in recent weeks, similar to the run-up to the economic downturns in 2000 and 2008. Hence, rising yields are typically considered a signal of weakness for the economy and can have a big impact across many markets.

As the yields increase, governments must pay more for their underlying government bonds. This combed with the current economic conditions of the post-Covid era and record national debt are factors that are unsurprisingly worrying economists

However, looking at the chart above from a technical perspective, this entire run can still be considered as a simple bearish retest of the previous support level.

Such an example is shown by the previous attempt to test the resistance above. This could be happening here as well, where the rates will then drop back down from the 1.53% level. But it is important to keep an eye on this level because breaking through it can have a major impact on the markets.

The government bond yields also have an impact on mortgage markets. Given that the real estate market is massively overheated at the moment with people taking on massive debt to purchase homes, an increase in interest rates could pop this entire bubble similar to what happened in 2008.

However, yields also impact other markets as gold often reacts to these moves as well. But is this time different? And how will Bitcoin respond to these potential macroeconomic shocks?

A weakening dollar vs. Bitcoin

U.S. Dollar Currency Index 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

The Dollar Currency Index (DXY) index continues to show weakness as yields are rising, which is generally good news for Bitcoin bulls. This suggests that investors are fleeing the dollar toward higher risk, higher reward investments, such as Bitcoin.

However, from a technical perspective, the DXY saw a bearish retest at 91.50 points, followed by more downside for the USD, as seen in the chart above. Now, a retest of the 90 points level is underway, with the primary question being whether this level will hold as support.

BTC/USD vs. DXY. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, it’s debatable whether the rise in yields is having any direct effect on the price of Bitcoin, particularly in recent days. Meanwhile, the DXY has often been inversely correlated with the price of Bitcoin, though this has been decreasing in recent months (see: below).

BTC rolling 90-day correlation vs. USD, VIX, Gold, S&P500. Source: Digital Assets Data

Since the crash in March, this inverse relationship grew stronger until September 2020, as a weakening USD was accompanied by a major increase in BTC price.

Of course, assets are only correlated until they aren’t, and many other factors can have a much bigger impact on BTC in the short term, e.g. miners or whales selling Bitcoin, government regulations, etc. 

Why is gold showing weakness?

Gold 3-day chart. Source: TradingView

The 3-day chart for gold price shows a clear-cut correction since August 2020. More importantly, the increase in yields or the weaker dollar has not impacted the gold market as much as Bitcoin’s.

Even with the recent surge in yields, people are not buying gold. In fact, an increase in yields has historically not benefitted gold — at least not in the short term — because higher yields would make government bonds more attractive for funds to hold for settlement and as a risk-off asset in their portfolios.

When yields continue rising toward higher levels, however, the uncertainty surrounding the economy also increases, and investors typically begin to shift from the dollar to gold as a safe-haven. This was seen in the 1980s when yields ran toward 14% and gold also spiked to new all-time highs.

BTC has become increasingly important in macroeconomics 

In the current state, however, falling gold prices may simply be an immediate reaction to the increase in yields in general. However, another possibility is that an increasing number of investors are opting for “digital gold” instead of the precious metal, not only because of the higher upside potential, i.e. risk-reward but also because these positions can be liquidated much easier.

But, another possibility is that an increasing number of investors are preferring “digital gold” to the precious metal — not only because of the higher upside potential but also because these positions can be liquidated much easier on digital trading platforms.

11 August 2020, dotted blue line, US corporations led by $MSTR begin buying #bitcoin as a treasury asset. pic.twitter.com/LEMNzwqQru

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) February 25, 2021

Today, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is still only 7-10% of gold’s, which highlights this massive upside potential.

Therefore, the macro conclusion that can be drawn is that the markets are becoming increasingly uncertain about the economy’s and the dollar’s future, as exemplified by the rising 10-year Treasury yields. However, it’s still too early to write off the recent correction in BTC price to this macroeconomic development as multiple other variables are at play.

Ultimately, the rising yields and a weakening dollar is an exciting development to keep an eye on moving forward. With Bitcoin becoming an increasingly important player in the macroeconomic environment, strategists at JPMorgan, for example, say BTC may continue to eat away at gold’s market share. This will likely result in an even higher valuation for Bitcoin, particularly in the event of another economic crisis at the expense of gold.

In December 2020, the JPMorgan strategists noted:

“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold, its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced. If this medium to longer-term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural headwind over the coming years.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

bookmark_borderCrypto derivatives exchange FTX launches futures on 2021 Olympics

Will they or won’t they happen? Amid debates over how safe the Olympic games can be in 2021, cryptocurrency traders can now bet on the likelihood of their eventual go-head.

Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX has created a new, specialized futures contract for traders to bet on the likelihood of the Olympic Games in Tokyo in 2021. The coronavirus pandemic continues to cast a shadow over the safety of hosting the event this year, particularly after a renewed outbreak of the virus in Tokyo last month.  

For each such uncertainty, as FTX notes in its tweet promoting the new contract, there can be a lucrative market. The new futures contract on FTX Token (FTT) has, according to the exchange, a different risk profile to Bitcoin (BTC). That is, “it has significantly higher chances of making large moves (to $0 or $1).”

In addition to the OLY2021 contract, FTX is continuing its line of products for speculation on the future likelihood of a Trump presidency in 2024. Notably, neither of these contracts is available to residents of barred jurisdictions, which include the United States, Canada, mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Turkey, the United Kingdom and others. 

As previously reported, cryptocurrency-powered markets have flourished during a politically and economically turbulent year. Last autumn, with the United States presidential election in focus, decentralized prediction platforms such as Augur and Polymarket reported significant increases in trading volumes, alongside crypto derivatives exchanges like FTX.

bookmark_borderCreditors of Mt. Gox Bitcoin exchange to vote on draft refund plan

Mt. Gox creditors will vote on a proposed draft compensation plan in October 2021.

The trustee of hacked and now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox has posted another update on the long-running process of refunding the exchange clients.

Nobuaki Kobayashi, a Tokyo attorney appointed to act as civil rehabilitation trustee to manage Mt. Gox’s bankruptcy estate funds, announced Thursday that the Tokyo District Court ordered that “there were no grounds for disapproving the draft rehabilitation plan.” As previously reported, the plan was filed on Dec. 15, 2020.

According to the announcement, the court has approved a repayment process schedule that includes a vote by creditors on the proposed refund plan. As part of the process, the trustee will initially determine the creditors with voting rights on March 24. Following the voting deadline on Oct. 8, creditors will attend a meeting on the resolution of the compensation plan on Oct. 20.

Creditors will have three options to proceed with the voting on the draft compensation plan, including online voting, written voting, as well as voting in person on the day of the creditor meeting. Select creditors will be asked to choose one of these methods, Kobayashi wrote.

Founded in 2010, Mt. Gox once used to be the world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) exchange, reportedly handling up to 80% of global BTC trading volumes. The crypto exchange suffered a series of devastating hacks, losing a total of 1.35 million BTC in two incidents in 2011 and 2014.

Following the second hack, Japanese lawyer Kobayashi was appointed to oversee the civil reimbursement process to reportedly compensate the 24,000 victims of the Mt. Gox hack. According to reports, there is around $630 million and 150,000 BTC in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trust waiting to be distributed to their rightful owners. Despite the reimbursement operation being initiated years ago, creditors still haven’t been paid back following multiple delays.

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